McDavid is the best prospect in the draft, plain and simple. Eichel is near, but not exactly 'close'. That's not a knock on the BC star, it just shows how great McDavid is.
2. Jack Eichel
3. Noah Hanifin
Category 2 features two college stars in Hanifin and Eichel. Eichel has the edge, and barring a major fallout will be picked 2nd. They haven't put up great numbers, but don't let that fool you. They are both legit top 3 prospects.
4. Dylan Strome
5. Oliver Kylington
Category 3 features a massive riser in Dylan Strome, who will now have the opportunity to prove his numbers aren't due to massive inflation playing with McDavid. Kylington had a rough start to the year, with little offensive output, however his overall game has been more than impressive. Could eventually rise into the top 3 if Hanifin takes a step back.
6. Matt Barzal
7. Pavel Zacha
8. Kyle Connor
9. Lawson Crouse
Category 4 contains 4 players who are on the edge of rising to the top 5, or falling out of the top 10. Barzal and Connor have produced like many thought they would, and have looked strong through the first quarter of the season. Zacha hasn't put up overwhelming numbers, but still plays the style he was brought over for. The big man needs to boost his offensive numbers to be considered a possible 1st line NHL scorer. Crouse is a wildcard. Many believe he could rise to the top 5, however it's more likely he falls off. Not due to lack of scoring or effort, rather his playing style is one that may not fit every team like Connor would.
10. Zack Werenski
11. Travis Konecny
Category 5 only has two players, but there are many who can rise into this spot. Werenski plays a solid, reliable game, and could rise like Dumba or Trouba in '12. Konecny plays a mature game with incredible offensive instinct. His drive and effort level separate him from other prospects. Werenski could legitimately rise into the top 5. Konecny is unlikely to rise that high due to his size.
12. Mitchell Marner
13. Jeremy Roy
14. Paul Bittner
15. Colin White
16. Evgeni Svechnikov
17. Mikko Rantanen
Category 6 is all about the guys who need to prove just a little more. Many have Marner in the top 10 because of his offensive abilities. Roy is a pure offensive defenceman which means teams could shy away from him. If Roy rounds out his game, he will be sought after by just about everyone. Bittner ended last year on a good note, however the offense this year has yet to come. If he finally picks up the offense, he is a dark horse for the top 7. Colin White hasn't had a great start to the season, but he is resilient, and it wouldn't be surprising if he bounces back fast. Svechnikov has had a great start to the year in terms of offense. He's a legit top 20 prospect, and if he maintains his scoring he could be a wildcard going into the draft. Rantanen is a solid prospect, and could very well be in the top 15 if his skating improves.
18. Jakub Zboril
19. Jordan Greenway
20. Daniel Sprong
21. Nick Merkley
22. Jansen Harkins
Category 7 contains players who are right where they should be. Harkins could be the one to watch out of this group. Merkley has been great this season and with a continued effort, could be top 15.
23. Jeremy Bracco
24. Brock Boeser
25. Matthew Spencer
26. Ryan Pilon
27. Ivan Provorov
28. Nikita Korostelev
29. Rasmus Andersson
30. Nicolas Roy
The final category does have some high end talent. Bracco has had a great start offensively, and that's something he needs to keep up considering his 5'9 frame. Boeser has looked good so far, and is unlikely to fall out of the first round. Pilon, Spencer, and Provorov all bring a steady game and project to be top 4 NHL defenceman. Roy has been quiet offensively, but has played a fairly strong all round game.
Final thoughts
It's early and there are a lot of wildcards still. For instance, Matej Tomek, who currently has a 1.10 GAA and .957 SV% looks like he could be a diamond in the rough, however the sample size is so small that it's hard to tell. There will be a ton of shuffling between now and June, which isn't something new.
Likely Risers:
- Nick Merkley - Jansen Harkins - Brock Boeser
Likely to Fall:
- Dylan Strome - Lawson Crouse - Travis Konecny