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Walt's NHL Power Rankings 2014/15

11/21/2014

3 Comments

 
Here are my "Power Rankings" to date.
My ranking formula is composed of weighted values for each of:

(a) 5v5 shot attempts for and against
(b) PP shot attempts for
(c) PK shot attempts against.

Shot attempts have been shown to be the best predictors of future performance for each of these situations.

MSM uses wins and losses in assessing the strength of teams generally, as well as focusing on goals in evaluating PP and PK strength. Hence, you will see that my power ranking will deviate significantly from someone like Pierre LeBrun of ESPN. He has Montreal ranked 1st! That's just wrong. It's like ranking Colorado first (or any where near first) last season.

My weighted values are something I derived using multiple regression analysis (too complicated to explain here). I have not seen this kind of analysis anywhere, so my weighting is probably unique. There is no intuitive judgement on this ranking, or noting whether teams are streaking (for better or for worse), or anything subjective. The ranking is purely statistical.

If you notice that a team is ranked higher or lower than they are in the standings (e.g., Oilers are ranked 14th in the Power Rankings, but 28th in the standings), you may think the ranking system is flawed. But if you look at the team's PDO, you'll see why a team is underachieving or overachieving.

In the Oilers case, you'll see that their PDO is way below 100 (i.e., 97.41). In other words, "bad luck" is affecting the team. Specifically, we have a very poor even strength save% of 90.13, which is 2nd worst in the league. My belief is that if we had an average save% (92%), we would be contending for a playoff spot. This doesn't mean I believe we have bad goal tending, but rather, that our goaltenders have had bad luck. I hope to see this save% improve by game 41.

The Top 10 in my Power Rankings


1. Chicago
2. Minnesota
3. Nashville
4. NY Islanders
5. Pittsburgh
6. Boston
7. San Jose
8. Carolina
9. St. Louis
10. Tampa Bay

Full Rankings are here or you can find the link on the right hand side labelled "Walt's NHL Power Rankings 2014/15".
3 Comments
Tyler link
11/21/2014 08:04:16 am

Unfortunately I'm not convinced that goaltending is the Oilers problem (although it hasn't been as good as I had hoped or thought that it would have been with Scrivens & Fasth - or obviously as good as it has needed to be so far) so much as it is their overall poor (dare I say NON-EXISTENT) team defence!

Reply
Walter Foddis
11/21/2014 09:37:34 am

Thanks for your thoughts, Tyler. To be clear, I'm not blaming goal tending; not yet anyway. If their save% remains below 90% after 40 games, I may have second thoughts.

Regarding team defense, their are metrics to look at this specifically. Are we allowing more quality shots (distance & type) that would cause the low save%? According to Parkatti's metrics, which include his Expected Goal metric that factors in distance and shot type (http://www.boysonthebus.com/2014/11/10/season-fancystats-update-after-15-games/), as of game 15, the Oilers allowed 9 more goals than their expected goals would predict. This strongly suggests that goal tending is the weak point and not the defense. Whether this is due to statistical variance or goal tending ability is a separate question that require more time (i.e., larger sample size) to ascertain.

What I find encouraging is that the Oilers Corsi Against per 60 min (CA60) after GP=18 is 54.7 & CA60 Close is 58.3, whereas last season CA60=60.4 and CA60 Close=62 for improvements of 5.7 in CA60 and 3.7 in CA60 Close. This suggests our defense has improved.

Reply
Walter Foddis
11/21/2014 09:42:13 am

After hearing some comments from others, I noticed the Canucks numbers are unusual. According to my formula, the Nucks are overachieving, yet their PDO is below 1. I don't know what to make it without further digging into the numbers. For now, I'll chalk it up to small sample size and expect that by game 41, the numbers will resolve. If not, I'll have to figure out why they are the exception to the rule.

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    Edmonton Oilers Corsi Contribution & Shot Attempt Generation Efficiency - 2014/15

    Walt's NHL Power Rankings - 2014/15

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