Possession metrics for Matt Fraser and Derek Roy.
Matt Fraser
Matt Fraser was acquired off waivers on Dec. 28, 2014. He was part of the blockbuster trade that sent Tyler Seguin to Dallas. His NHL even-strength productivity is on the low side at 1.1 points/60 minutes. Last season, playing for Boston's AHL affiliate, the Providence Bruins, he had 30 points in 44 games.
Because Fraser's NHL production numbers are pretty thin, I thought some of his possession metrics could provide additional useful information.
Matt Fraser
Corsi-For Relative to Teammates/60 min: -8.6 (bad)
Corsi-Against Relative to Teammates/60 min: -4.3 (good)
dCorsi Impact: 7.18 (good)
The Corsi-For (CF) relative-to-teammates metric (-8.6) indicates that when Fraser was on the ice, the team was relatively weaker in generating shot attempts. However, his Corsi-Against (CA) relative-to-teammates metric (-4.3) suggests that the team was relatively stronger at suppressing shot attempts when he was on the ice. In other words, Fraser appears to be stronger defensively than offensively. Fraser's dCorsi Impact score supports this conclusion. Specifically, his dCorsi Impact of 7.18 was primarily driven by his observed CA exceeding his expected CA. With Fraser on the ice, this stat tells us that the team allowed 7.2 fewer shot attempts than would be expected. Granted, his dCorsi Impact is not a huge number, but at least it's something positive. For those unfamiliar with dCorsi, this individual player metric incorporates the main factors that influence a player's Corsi such as his team's possession strength, zone starts, and player position. To read more on the dCorsi metric, go here.
In general, then, Fraser's Corsi metrics suggest he is stronger on defensive than he is on offense. This is important given how often the Gordon-Hendricks pairing--presumably Fraser's new linemates--starts in the defensive zone. The Oilers appear to be betting Fraser will be better than Pinizzotto. Probably a fair bet to make. Fraser is younger; has potentially more upside than 30-year old Pinizzotto, plus he has more NHL experience.
While I'm discussing the 4th line, I still don't understand why Joensuu's time-on-ice was suddenly reduced, and then even worse, Eakins scratched him to make way for Gazdic and Pinizzotto, who are inferior players. This is kind of move that leaves the thinking fan very puzzled. I wouldn't be surprised if Joensuu had asked to be released given this situation.
Because Fraser's NHL production numbers are pretty thin, I thought some of his possession metrics could provide additional useful information.
Matt Fraser
Corsi-For Relative to Teammates/60 min: -8.6 (bad)
Corsi-Against Relative to Teammates/60 min: -4.3 (good)
dCorsi Impact: 7.18 (good)
The Corsi-For (CF) relative-to-teammates metric (-8.6) indicates that when Fraser was on the ice, the team was relatively weaker in generating shot attempts. However, his Corsi-Against (CA) relative-to-teammates metric (-4.3) suggests that the team was relatively stronger at suppressing shot attempts when he was on the ice. In other words, Fraser appears to be stronger defensively than offensively. Fraser's dCorsi Impact score supports this conclusion. Specifically, his dCorsi Impact of 7.18 was primarily driven by his observed CA exceeding his expected CA. With Fraser on the ice, this stat tells us that the team allowed 7.2 fewer shot attempts than would be expected. Granted, his dCorsi Impact is not a huge number, but at least it's something positive. For those unfamiliar with dCorsi, this individual player metric incorporates the main factors that influence a player's Corsi such as his team's possession strength, zone starts, and player position. To read more on the dCorsi metric, go here.
In general, then, Fraser's Corsi metrics suggest he is stronger on defensive than he is on offense. This is important given how often the Gordon-Hendricks pairing--presumably Fraser's new linemates--starts in the defensive zone. The Oilers appear to be betting Fraser will be better than Pinizzotto. Probably a fair bet to make. Fraser is younger; has potentially more upside than 30-year old Pinizzotto, plus he has more NHL experience.
While I'm discussing the 4th line, I still don't understand why Joensuu's time-on-ice was suddenly reduced, and then even worse, Eakins scratched him to make way for Gazdic and Pinizzotto, who are inferior players. This is kind of move that leaves the thinking fan very puzzled. I wouldn't be surprised if Joensuu had asked to be released given this situation.
Derek Roy
Returning to Roy, he is 31 years old and has shown a sharp decline in offensive production in recent years. This is a typical pattern NHL forwards. Eric T., of SB Nation, notes: "On average, players retain about 90% of their scoring through age 29, but the drop from there is pretty sharp -- they hit 80% at age 31, 70% at age 32-33, and 60% at age 35." Including last season, Roy's production has already dropped to 55% of his prime years (0.96 pts/game; 2007-2011), so he's way ahead of the normal decline. Not a good sign. Let's at his metrics more closely, including possession.
Derek Roy
Points/60 min (5v5) = 1.66 (Forward avg = 1.52)
dCorsi Impact = -18.55
Corsi-For Relative Teammates/60 min = -0.98
Corsi-Against Relative Teammates/60 min = +1.15
iCorsi/60 min (5v5) = 10.8 (Forward avg = 11.86)
Face-off % = 48%
To summarize, Roy is slightly above average among NHL forwards for point production and slightly below average for shot attempt generation. His relative-to-teammate Corsi metrics are near zero. Finally, his face-off% ranks below the top 60 centers. To put it simply, Roy appears to be an average 3rd line center.
Are these metrics an upgrade on Arcobello? Let's take a look.
Derek Roy
Points/60 min (5v5) = 1.66 (Forward avg = 1.52)
dCorsi Impact = -18.55
Corsi-For Relative Teammates/60 min = -0.98
Corsi-Against Relative Teammates/60 min = +1.15
iCorsi/60 min (5v5) = 10.8 (Forward avg = 11.86)
Face-off % = 48%
To summarize, Roy is slightly above average among NHL forwards for point production and slightly below average for shot attempt generation. His relative-to-teammate Corsi metrics are near zero. Finally, his face-off% ranks below the top 60 centers. To put it simply, Roy appears to be an average 3rd line center.
Are these metrics an upgrade on Arcobello? Let's take a look.
Marc Arcobello
Points/60 min (5v5) = 1.04 (+1 Roy)
dCorsi Impact = -46.35 (+1 Roy)
Corsi-For Relative Teammates/60 min = -2.11 (+1 Roy)
Corsi-Against Relative Teammates/60 min = -3.20 (+1 Arcobello)
iCorsi/60 min (5v5) = 11.14 (+1 Arcobello)
Face-off % = 47.9% (no difference)
Points-wise, Roy is an upgrade (Points/60 = 1.5 vs 1.1). He also appears to have an advantage in helping his teammates generate more shot attempts, although Arcobello takes slightly more shot attempts ( iCorsi/60 min = 11.14 vs. 10.8). Finally, their respective face-off percentages are nearly identical. Overall, Roy has a small-to-moderate advantage in offensive production, but nothing beyond that. To summarize, Roy could be an upgrade, if we're lucky, but in the long run, he may not add more to the team than what Arcobello was contributing. One thing Arcobello was not afraid of doing was checking (54 hits), which, if nothing else, can get fans into the game. Roy tends to shy away from the physical game (3 hits).
dCorsi Impact = -46.35 (+1 Roy)
Corsi-For Relative Teammates/60 min = -2.11 (+1 Roy)
Corsi-Against Relative Teammates/60 min = -3.20 (+1 Arcobello)
iCorsi/60 min (5v5) = 11.14 (+1 Arcobello)
Face-off % = 47.9% (no difference)
Points-wise, Roy is an upgrade (Points/60 = 1.5 vs 1.1). He also appears to have an advantage in helping his teammates generate more shot attempts, although Arcobello takes slightly more shot attempts ( iCorsi/60 min = 11.14 vs. 10.8). Finally, their respective face-off percentages are nearly identical. Overall, Roy has a small-to-moderate advantage in offensive production, but nothing beyond that. To summarize, Roy could be an upgrade, if we're lucky, but in the long run, he may not add more to the team than what Arcobello was contributing. One thing Arcobello was not afraid of doing was checking (54 hits), which, if nothing else, can get fans into the game. Roy tends to shy away from the physical game (3 hits).
Please feel free to leave comments, criticisms, or questions. Hope you found this informative.
Data courtesy of Puckalytics, war-on-ice, Sporting Charts, BoysOnTheBus, and HockeyDB.
Data courtesy of Puckalytics, war-on-ice, Sporting Charts, BoysOnTheBus, and HockeyDB.
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